TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH STATEMENT

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR BARBUDA; SEE WARNING STATEMENT FOR BARBUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS  POSE A POSSIBLE THREAT TO THE SPECIFIED AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS BUT IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

AT 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 59.1 WEST OR ABOUT 197 MILES (317 KM) EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA AND ABOUT 214 MILES OR  344 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBUDA.

JERRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH (30 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHTLY SLOWER NORTHWARD MOTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF JERRY IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND JERRY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES (280 KM) MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).

BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATION AND ANALYSIS, THE CORE OF JERRY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY INTO TOMORROW FRIDAY CAUSING GUSTY CONDITIONS MAINLY IN SHOWERS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 2 - 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PASSAGE OF JERRY WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING MAINLY IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS

SWELLS GENERATED BY JERRY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS; HENCE, MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO STAY IN PORT

RESIDENTS SHOULD BE PREPARING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM CONDITIONS AND IF THE WATCH IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING BE ABLE TO RUSH PREPARATIONS TO COMPLETION.

REPEATING THE 11:00 AM ECT POSITION, 15.9 N, 59.1W. MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT 5 PM

FORECASTER