WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND
BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
11:51 AM ECT TUE, SEP 16, 2025
...TROPICAL CYCLONE LIKELY TO FORM...INTEREST IN THE LEEWARD AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR...
THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF AL92, WHICH IS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS ENTERED THE MONITORED AREA IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST.
AT THIS STAGE, THE CONSENSUS BASED ON THE FORECAST MODELS IS PROJECTING THE SYSTEM, IF IT DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE, PASSING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, IT IS STILL UNCLEAR IF OR WHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OR WHETHER IT WILL IMPACT THE REGION. TO BE SAFE, RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND REMAIN PREPARED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HURRICANE SEASON.
AT 8 AM ECT OR 1200 UTC, AL92 WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1189 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
AT THIS TIME, WINDS NEAR 30 MPH ARE NOTED WITHIN THE LOW WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS IS HIGH AT 90 PERCENT AND FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS ARE HIGH AT 90 PERCENT. THIS MEANS THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE ARE NO TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERTS, WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.
FORECASTER
JALEEL JACOBS