03:32 UTC APRIL 12 2026

DISCUSSION:   MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE LEEWARD THIS EVENING; HOWEVER, THE TOUGH IS NOT REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WHERE A RIDGE WAS ANALYZED. NOTWITHSTANDING, THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SEEN ON THE LATEST MIMIC PRODUCT IS STILL SUFFICIENT FOR INSTABILITY TO BE RELEASED AND IS THE REASON WHY SOME SHOWERS NOTED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY WERE MODERATE

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS: THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE SHORT-LIVED; HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO LINGER AND THIS, ALONG WITH A MODERATE BREEZE, WILL STILL MAINTAIN A HEIGHTENED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER AND AROUND THE LEEWARD WHERE SOME SHOWERS COULD BE MODERATE IF THE SURFACE TRIGGERING MECHANISMS ARE RIGHT. MEANWHILE, SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE BVI WHERE A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL.

FORECASTER

LENARD JOSIAH