15:04 UTC JUNE 10 2026

DISCUSSION:   DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYSED OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WAS SEEN CLEARLY IN SATELLITE DERIVED WIND FLOW, HOWEVER MOISTURE LEVELS ARE JUST TOO LOW FOR ANY RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWED A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION THAT LIKELY ADDED TO THE DRY CONDITIONS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A FEW SMALL ECHO CLUSTERS MOVING TOWARDS THE LEEWARDS BUT MOSTLY DISSIPATING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL PATCHES ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING GIVING THEM A MODERATE CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE CONDTIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE ISLANDS FOR THE PERIOD. THIS OUTLOOK SLIGHTLY DIFFERS FROM THE LASTEST FORECAST FOR MODERATE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE SEAS REMAIN AT SAFE LEVELS.

FORECASTER

LETITIA HUMPHREYS/CHARISSA HUMPHREYS