01:28 UTC MARCH 23 2026

DISCUSSION:   THIS EVENING, MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE AREA. ANALYSIS SHOWED THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING OVER PUERTO RICO TOWARDS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH STILL LINGERING OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TPW SHOWS HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE REGION HOWEVER, THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPRESSION WAS TOO MUCH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALSO WEAKENED LEAVING WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND RADAR SHOWED DIMINISHING ECHOES OVER THE ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH POTENTIAL SHOWER OUTCOMES FOR THE AREA. MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE LOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN HIGH HOWEVER DRIER UPPER LEVELS AND SUBSIDENCE MAY JUST SUPPRESS SHOWERS COMING FROM THE TROUGH SYSTEM. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AT TIMES MAINLY FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TOMORROW WHICH COULD CAUSE DAY TIME HEATING AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS IF TEMPERATURES ARE HIGH ENOUGH. THEREFORE, A MODERATE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MOST IS LIKELY FOR THE AREA. MEANWHILE SEA CONDITIONS REMAIN AT SAFE LEVELS.

THIS IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ISSUED FORECAST AND NO AMENDMENTS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER

LETITIA HUMPHREYS/CHARISSA HUMPHREYS