AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
ISSUED BY ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

01:31 UTC JULY 05 2026

 

DISCUSSION:   DRY AIR ALONG WITH THE INTRUSION OF SAHARAN DUST CONTINUE TO LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. THE ISLANDS TODAY SAW PRETTY MUCH SUNNY AND HAZY CONDITIONS WITH VERY LITTLE OR NO SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT SOME CLOUDS OVER THE REGION CURRENTLY, BOTH THE GUADELOUPE AND PUERTO RICO RADARS ARE RESPECTIVELY SHOWING JUST A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWER ECHOES IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE PROJECTING ANOTHER 24 HOURS WHERE DRY AIR ALONG WITH SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO RESTRICT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL THE CHANCE, A 30 PERCENT OR LOW CHANCE OF HAVING SOME LIGHTS SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AS THE TRADEWINDS PUSH SOME SHALLOW POCKETS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, WHICH ARE ALSO CAUSING ELEVATED SEAS PARTICULARY IN THE OPEN WATERS EAST AND NORTH OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK TO 2.1 METRES OR 7 FEET. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE TWO ISLANDS.

 

FORECASTER

LORNE SALMON