03:00 UTC FEBRUARY 21 2026

DISCUSSION:   THIS EVENING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAILED AS A RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATED ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE TO NO ECHOES WERE SEEN ON RADAR IMAGERY WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWED MOSTLY FEW LOW LEVEL PATCHES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE ISLANDS WERE ALSO UNFAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND MOISTURE LEVELS REMAINED RELATIVELY LOW. ADDITIONALLY A MODERATE TO FRESH WIND FLOW WAS OBSERVED LIKELY DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN LOW. THE CONVERGENCE SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE GROWTH. THEREFORE, MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR INSTANCES OF CONFLUENCING IN ASSOCIATION WITH ELEVATED WINDS. MEANWHILE, LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT COASTLINES UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AT MOST.

THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ISSUED FORECAST AND NO AMENDMENTS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER

LETITIA HUMPHREYS/CHARISSA HUMPHREYS