14:43 UTC APRIL 17 2026

DISCUSSION:   A MODERATE TO SOMETIMES LOCALLY FRESH WIND FLOW BROUGHT SHALLOW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE ISLANDS IN MORNING. THESE PATCHES MOVED ON THE SOUTHERN END OF A BROAD STRONG RIDGE PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. RADAR SHOWED SPOTTY ECHOES MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WHILE SATELLIETE SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS COVERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THESE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A JET MAX OVER THE REGION BUT LITTLE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCING ON THE WIND FLOW COULD SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE BVI. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT A SIMILAR REGIME WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO TRIGGER A MODERATE CHANCE OF BRIEF SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE, A SMALL CRAFT CAUTION SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE.

THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ISSUED FORECAST AND NO AMENDMENTS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER

LORNE SALMON/CHARISSA HUMPHREYS