03:33 UTC MAY 07 2026

DISCUSSION:   DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS, GENERALLY FAIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS EVENING AS STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING MAINTAINED A DRY AND SUPPRESSIVE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ALLOWING FOR ONLY SHALLOW CLOUD PATCHES AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER, SHALLOW POCKETS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE FORECAST TO CROSS THE ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING PERIOD SUPPORTING OCCASIONAL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SHALLOW AND SHORT-LIVED DUE TO PERSISTENT DRY AIR AND INVERSION CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER TO MID-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE.

MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE AND GENERALLY SAFE FOR MARINE INTERESTS. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER

LENARD JOSIAH/BIANCA BESS