16:05 UTC SEPTEMBER 28 2026

DISCUSSION: A SURFACE-TO-MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS REBUILDING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS, SUPPORTING GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS MAINLY SHALLOW PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW, WHILE RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES ONLY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND THE ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LOW. OTHERWISE, PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.

BASED ON LATEST FORECAST MODELS, THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE; HOWEVER, STRENGTHENING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL TRANSPORT PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. CONSEQUENTLY, BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, BEFORE GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS RETURN BETWEEN SHOWERS. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND INCREASINGLY STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT SHOULD RESTRICT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTWINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH, WHILE SEAS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE.

FORECASTER

JALEEL JACOBS