15:17 UTC JULY 16 2026

DISCUSSION:   DRY STABLE AND HAZY CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS DOWN FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS SO MUCH OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WAS NOT SEEN. HOWEVER SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE PATTERN WHILE SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN IS ASSUMED TO BE OVER THE AREA AS MODELS SHOW THIS AS WELL. SLIGHT SAHARAN DUST HAZE ALSO CONTINUED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA. RADAR SHOWED A FEW SPOTTY ECHOES BUT SHOWERS REMAINED VERY MINIMAL OVER THE LAND AREAS.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STABLE SLIGHTLY HAZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH WESTWARD BRINGING THE ISLANDS UNDER A FAVORABLE REGION OF THE TROUGH, HOWEVER DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS NOT MUCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. MEANWHILE THE SEAS REMAIN AT SAFE LEVELS UNTIL LATER TOMORROW WHEN THE OPEN WATERS BECOME A BIT CHOPPY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS.

THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ISSUED FORECAST AND NO AMENDMENTS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER

LETITIA HUMPHREYS/CHARISSA HUMPHREYS