03:00 UTC DECEMBER 17 2025

DISCUSSION:   THIS EVENING, A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL WAS OBSERVED OVER AND NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A LINE OF ECHOES WERE SEEN OVER THE OPEN WATERS NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH GREATER CONVECTIVE BLOW UPS SEEN FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHILE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL PATCHES MOVED OVER THE ISLANDS. THIS PRODUCED LIGHT SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER AND AROUND THE SOME OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHILE THE BVI EXPERIENCED DRIER CONDITIONS.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND INCREASE THEIR CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR THAT TIME. MEANWHILE, A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND REDUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA BY TOMORROW NIGHT. MEANWHILE, SEA CONDITIONS REMAIN HAZARDOUS DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELLS AFFECTING THE AREA MAINLY ON THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COASTLINES AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.

THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ISSUED FORECAST AND NO AMENDMENTS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER

LETITIA HUMPHREYS/CHARISSA HUMPHREYS