| AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS ISSUED BY ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES 02:31 UTC OCTOBER 30 2025 
 DISCUSSION: THIS
EVENING, A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BROUGHT
CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN MAINLY IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EVENING.
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING SHOWERS DISSIPATED RAPIDLY DUE TO STRONG UPPER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER,
LAYER TYPE CLOUDS STILL LINGERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. DRIER
CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVER THE BVI.  MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO LIMIT
THE SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL WAVE
FURTHER EAST OF THE ISLANDS IS ALSO PRODUCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND
APPROACHING MOISTURE COULD INTERACT WITH THE TROUGH AND INCREASE THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS LATER TOMORROW FOR THE LEEWARDS AND THE NEXT DAY FOR
THE BVI. ADDITIONALLY, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE INHIBITED UNTIL THE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE WHICH IS IN SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ISSUED FORECAST.  MEANWHILE, SEA CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR THE PERIOD.  
 
 FORECASTER LETITIA HUMPHREYS/CHARISSA HUMPHREYS 
 |