14:49 UTC DECEMBER 14 2025

DISCUSSION:   THIS MORNING, A RIDGE PATTERN PRODUCED DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE ISLANDS. A DISTINCT DRY PATCH WAS SEEN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ON THE TPW. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED LITTLE TO NO ECHOES OVER THE AREA, HOWEVER TOWARDS THE END OF THE MORNING, A LINE OF MOISTURE WAS SEEN APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE EAST. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK TROUGH SEEN AT 700 MB, LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCING AND SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. WINDS ALSO REMAINED ELEVATED.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE INCOMING LINE OF MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT MAINLY FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND TOMORROW MORNING FOR THE BVI. ON TPW, THE LINE OF MOISTURE IS NOT DEEP SO SHOWERS MAY BE PERIODIC AND MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. MEANWHILE, SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HAZARDOUS AS A HIGH SURF WARNING WILL TAKE EFFECT, HOWEVER, WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DECREASE INTO TOMORROW AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END.

THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ISSUED FORECAST AND NO AMENDMENTS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER

LETITIA HUMPHREYS/CHARISSA HUMPHREYS