14:51 UTC FEBRUARY 16 2026

DISCUSSION:   THIS MORNING, RELATIVELY SETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE AREA. ANALYSIS SHOWED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LINGERING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME RAINFALL MAINLY OVER THE BVI. LOW LEVEL PATCHES ON THE WIND FLOW MOVED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BROUGHT LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS. RADAR SHOWED A FEW SPOTTY ECHOES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS LOW LEVEL PATCHES CONTINUE TO MOVE ON THE WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA. THERE IS STILL A MODERATE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE ISLANDS. MEANWHILE SEA CONDITIONS REMAIN AT SAFE LEVELS.

THIS IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ISSUED FORECAST AND NO AMENDMENTS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER

LETITIA HUMPHREYS/CHARISSA HUMPHREYS