15:42 UTC SEPTEMBER 25 2026

DISCUSSION:   NOTWITHSTANDING THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA, RAINFALL ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. THIS IS SO BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL SUPPORT BUT NOTWITHSTANDING, THE DEEP LAYERED ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE BASED ON THE LATEST MORNING SOUNDINGS. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING, HOWEVER, THAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON SOME LOCALIZE CONVECTIVE TOWERS COULD FORM FROM DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ISLANDS WITH THE SUPPORTIVE SIDE OVER THE LEEWARDS. IN RESPONSE, MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE AVAILABILITY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE FORMATION OF MUCH LAYERED TYPE CLOUDS. THEREFORE, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, RAINFALL ACTIVITY WILL BE A STRUGGLE BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL TRIGGER. MODEL OUTPUTS AND THEIR DERIVED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AND SHALLOW MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ONLY BRIEF LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE LEEWARDS AND ALSO FOR THE BVIS

FORECASTER

LENARD JOSIAH