16:22 UTC OCTOBER 31 2025

DISCUSSION:   ANALYSIS: RECENT REPORTS FROM THE LEEWARD AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING INDICATED PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. ADDIONTIONALY,ELAVATED MOISTURE LEVELS AS SEEN ON THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMED THIS, SHOWING SCATTERED ECHOES AND EMBEDDED DEEPER CONVECTIVE CELLS MAINLY OVER OPEN WATERS EAST OF THE ISLANDS. FORECAST: AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ISLANDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, SOME PRODUCUING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTERWARDS OVER THE LEEWARDS AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS BY TOMORROW MORNING. MEANWHILE, LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILTY OVER THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THOSE ISLANDS. THIS IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND THEREFORE, NO CHANGES ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER