16:16 UTC OCTOBER 28 2026

DISCUSSION: A SURFACE-TO-LOW-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS, MAINTAINING GENERALLY STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW LIKELY GENERATED OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AND BRIEF, ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. MEANWHILE, THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE-TO-LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A FAVOURABLE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN REMAINED CONCENTRATED FARTHER WEST AND SOUTHWEST, PARTICULARLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO, HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL ANALYSIS, THE RIDGE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, WITH RELATIVELY DRY MID-LEVEL CONDITIONS LIMITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS, OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA COULD TRIGGER BRIEF SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY, GENERALLY FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL, WHILE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.

FORECASTER

JALEEL JACOBS