15:53 UTC OCTOBER 04 2026

DISCUSSION: THIS MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY SHALLOW PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS WITHIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW, WHILE SOME MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS ALSO EVIDENT ACROSS THE WIDER REGION. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES ONLY ISOLATED, SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OR ORGANIZED RAINFALL ACTIVITY NOTED. THIS SUPPORTS THE OBSERVATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING SOMEWHAT LIMITED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ISLANDS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO SUPPORT GENERALLY FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

BASED ON LATEST FORECAST MODELS, THIS PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A MODERATE CHANCE OF BRIEF, ISOLATED SHOWERS AS AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WHICH PROVIDES SOME ENHANCEMENT TO PASSING CLOUD PATCHES AND SHOWERS. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, PATCHES OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND A FEW PASSING SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NORTHERN LEEWARDS. BY TOMORROW, GENERALLY FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LIMITED. HOWEVER, MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER AS A TROPICAL WAVE, PRESENTLY ANALYZED NEAR 51°W, APPROACHES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, SETTING UP FOR A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEYOND MONDAY.

THIS IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ISSUED FORECAST, NO AMENDMENT IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER

JALEEL JACOBS