03:31 UTC FEBRUARY 15 2026

DISCUSSION:   THIS EVENING, DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE AREA. ANALYSIS SHOWED THE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING OVER PUERTO RICO, HOWEVER DRY CONDITIONS STILL PREVAILED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT INTO OUR REGION HAS SLACKENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LEAVING WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY FAIR AND TEMPERATURES COOL FOR THE NIGHT. RADAR SHOWED LITTLE TO NO ECHOES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT COULD BRING SOME RAINFALL OVER THE BVI DURING THE PERIOD AT A MODERATE CHANCE. FOR THE REST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY ONLY POSSIBLE DUE TO PERTURBATIONS ON THE WIND FLOW AND BUILD UPS DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS. MEANWHILE SEA CONDITIONS REMAIN AT SAFE LEVELS.

THIS IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ISSUED FORECAST AND NO AMENDMENTS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER

LETITIA HUMPHREYS/CHARISSA HUMPHREYS