14:56 UTC APRIL 03 2026

DISCUSSION:   SOME POCKETS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DIMINISHING TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEEWARD AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. BOTH THE GUADELOUPE AND PUERTO RICO RADARS SINCE EARLIER IN THE MORNING HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING MOST OF THE SHOWERS MISSING THE ISLANDS. THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS, ALTHOUGH INDICATING THE TROUGH WILL BE COMPLETELY DIMINISHED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ARE PROJECTING SOME REMNANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN AT THE HIGH END OF THE MODERATE RANGE (60 PERCENT) AS REFLECTED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MODELS ARE ALSO PROJECTING A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH BUILDS AND STRENGTHENS. AS A RESULT, THE CURRENT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDFLOW WILL INCREASE TO A MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW WITH SOME GUSTS; WHICH WILL ADD TO THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TOMORROW AS THERE WILL BE SOME GREATER MIXING AT THE LOWER END OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

...THE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE SUCH WHERE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE ISLANDS EXCEPT MONTSERRAT AS SWELLS PEAKING UP TO 2.1 METRES OR 7 FEET CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF ON THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COASTLINES OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER, THE MODELS ARE PROJECTING BY SATURDAY A PETERING OUT OF THE SWELLS AND HENCE A DISCONTINUATION OF THE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE FORECAST MODELS ARE PROJECTING AN INCREASE IN THE WIND DRIVEN WAVES OF UP TO 2.4 METRES OR 8 FEET; HENCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE POSTED.

FORECASTER

LORNE SALMON