03:21 UTC JULY 26 2026

DISCUSSION:   THE LOWER LEVEL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RELATIVELY MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE THIS EVENING. THE PRESENCE OF THE MOISTURE HAS YIELDED OCCASIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND WHERE THE MODERATE TO SOMETIMES FRESH BREEZE IS ADDED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IN VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS BUT ITS BELIEVED THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS NOT ADDING THE ENHANCEMENTS AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARDS ALLOWING THE FAVORABLE SIDE OF THE FEATURE TO HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON WEATHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES WESTWARDS, THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE IN TANDEM; HOWEVER, THE MOST CRITICAL AREA OF DIVERGENCE OF THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE ISLANDS SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MOST OF THE EXPECTED DEEP CONVECTION COULD REMAIN OFF-SHORE. NOTWITHSTANDING, THE INSTABILITY, ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARDS. MEANWHILE FOR THE BVI, LOW MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD CAUSE A MODERATE CHANCE OF BRIEF SHOWERS OVER THESE ISLANDS.

FORECASTER

LENARD JOSIAH