03:26 UTC NOVEMBER 04 2026

DISCUSSION:   A MODERATE BREEZE, ALONG WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE LEVELS, CAUSED SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWER OVER AND AROUND THE ISLANDS. THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUE AROUND SOME ISLANDS AS NOTED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS: A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA; HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A MAJOR REDUCTION IN THE WINDFLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. IN THESE CONDITIONS, THE BREAKDOWN IN THE SYNOPTIC FLOW COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE EPISODES; HOWEVER, MODEL DERIVED SOUNDING IS REVEALING THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME DEVELOPING BECAUSE OF A WEAK THERMAL LAYER. BUT WHILE DEEP CONVECTION IS LESS LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE, THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND MARGINAL MOISTURE COULD STILL PROVIDE COASTAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AROUND THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF SOME LEEWARD ISLANDS FOR A BRIEF TIME; MEANWHILE, THE BVI COULD SEE A GREATER CHANCE OF LOCALIZE AFTERNOON SHOWERS BECAUSE OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LEVELS.

FORECASTER

LENARD JOSIAH