01:02 UTC NOVEMBER 01 2026

DISCUSSION:   A TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS DROVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY; HOWEVER, THE TROUGH WAS NOT DEEP BECAUSE OF THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND AS SUCH, ITS EFFECT WAS STIFLED. MIMIC DID SHOW MOISTURE MOVING WESTWARDS BUT THIS WAS ONLY GOOD ENOUGH TO GENERATE BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS WHEN COMBINED WITH THE BREEZE. THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS NOTED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS: THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARDS. MEANWHILE, BOTH THE GFS OPERATIONS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW A RIDGE AT 500MB AND ALSO AT THE LOWER LEVELS REMAINING OVER THE AREA. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO GENERATE A MODERATE BREEZE OVER THE ISLANDS. BUT AT THE LOWER LEVELS, THE GFS OPERATIONS SHOWS AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONTINUE OVER THE ISLANDS -A SCENARIO THAT THE ECMWF AND AEROME SUPPORT; HOWEVER, THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW DECREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A BLEND OF THESE THE OUTCOMES STILL SUGGEST A MODERATE CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA DUE AVAILABLE  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND  SHALLOW CLOUDS BEING PUSHED WESTWARDS. AT THIS TIME NO CHANGE IS REQUIRED TO THE LATEST ISSUED FORECAST

FORECASTER

LENARD JOSIAH