03:45 UTC JUNE 19 2025

DISCUSSION:   ANOTHER DAY WHERE ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY RESTRICTED SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THE STABILITY IS DRIVEN BY THE PRESENCE OF A RIDGE WHICH IN-TURN, IS CAPPING THE ATMOSPHERE AS NOTED IN DAYTIME SOUNDING. THIS EVENING, A FEW SPOTS OF SHOWERS - THOUGH LIGHT- ARE NOTED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS: THERE IS A NOTABLE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE FROM THE SOUTH. INTERESTINGLY, THIS MOISTURE SEEM TO BE CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE NORTHERN END OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY OVER THE WINDWARDS. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE, REQUIRES INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARDS WHICH THE LATEST FORECAST HAS CAPTURED. MEANWHILE, THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE BVI. DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THOSE ISLANDS SHOULD RESULT IN A LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FORECASTER

LENARD JOSIAH