03:48 UTC SEPTEMBER 18 2025

DISCUSSION:   LINGERING INSTABILTY FROM A TROPICAL WAVE RESULTED IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH NONE WERE REPORTED IN THE METARS, THE LIGHTENING MAPPER HIGHLIGHTED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE VICITNITY OF BOTH THE LEEWARD AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. CURRENT DATA ALSO HIGHLIGHTS A LOW AT 700MB JUST NORTH OF ANGUILLA WHICH IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. NOTWITHSTANDING, THE HIGH LEVELS OF PRECIPTABLE WATER, THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE ISLANDS DID NOT AMOUNT TO BEING SIGNIFICANT.

MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LEVELS IS FORECAST TO BRING MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN, PARTICULARLY SET UP OVER THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS WILL HEIGHTEN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH RAINFALL FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANT MAINLY FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A QPF OF UP TO 1 INCH. MEANWHILE, OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BUT TO A LESSER EXTENT.

IN THE MEAN TIME, SEAS REMAIN AT GENERALLY SAFE LEVELS.

THIS ANALYSIS AND OUTLOOK IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ISSUED FORECAST AND NO AMENDMENTS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER

LETITIA HUMPHREYS