14:32 UTC JUNE 16 2026

DISCUSSION:   RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVER THE LEEWARD AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. A RIDGE WAS DOMINANT OVER THE NORTH EASTERN CARIBBEAN, HOWEVER OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARDS, A TROPICAL WAVE BROUGHT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED VERY FEW ECHOES MOVING MAINLY OVER ANTIGUA, WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWED PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS.

ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA. THIS WAVE MAY HAVE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMPLITUDE BUT SAHARAN DUST IS LIMITING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MODELS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE OR AFTER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD TOMORROW AS THE WAVE MOVES IN. FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MEANWHILE, SEAS REMAIN AT SAFE LEVELS FOR THE PERIOD.

THIS IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ISSUED FORECAST AND NO AMENDMENTS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER

LETITIA HUMPHREYS/CHARISSA HUMPHREYS