02:31 UTC OCTOBER 30 2025

DISCUSSION: THIS EVENING, A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BROUGHT CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN MAINLY IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EVENING. THROUGHOUT THE EVENING SHOWERS DISSIPATED RAPIDLY DUE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER, LAYER TYPE CLOUDS STILL LINGERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVER THE BVI.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL WAVE FURTHER EAST OF THE ISLANDS IS ALSO PRODUCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND APPROACHING MOISTURE COULD INTERACT WITH THE TROUGH AND INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS LATER TOMORROW FOR THE LEEWARDS AND THE NEXT DAY FOR THE BVI. ADDITIONALLY, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE INHIBITED UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE WHICH IS IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ISSUED FORECAST.

FORECASTER

LETITIA HUMPHREYS/CHARISSA HUMPHREYS