03:34 UTC SEPTEMBER 10 2026

DISCUSSION:   MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUED OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSED, A LINE OF SHOWERS REPRESENTING A TROPICAL WAVE PROVIDED LATE EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BUT THESE WERE RACING WESTWARDS AND HENCE THEIR DURATION WAS SHORT LIVED.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS: THE GFS MODEL APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THE WAVE AND DID NOT HAVE A GOOD REPRESENTATION IN THE WIND FIELD BUT SHOWED THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. HOWEVER, THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR MESOSCALE MODEL DID SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LEEWARDS TONIGHT AND OVER THE BVI BY EARLY TOMORROW. THIS FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE ON THE HRRR WHICH SHOWS ELEVATED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUING OVER THE LEEWARDS AND BVI INTO THE DAY TOMORROW BEFORE A GENERAL REDUCTION OVER ALL ISLANDS BY TOMORROW EVENING AS DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNS. AT THIS TIME NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECASTER

LENARD JOSIAH