01:56 UTC MAY 23 2026

 
DISCUSSION: A BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINED THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS EVENING. THE RESULTING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUED TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS OBSERVED. DURING THE EVENING HOURS, METAR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS GENERALLY REPORTED PARTLY CLOUDY TO OCCASIONALLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD PATCHES. A FEW STATIONS OBSERVED LIGHT SHOWERS AND TEMPORARILY REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES, WHILE WINDS REMAINED FROM THE EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SPOTTY TO SCATTERED ECHOES MOVING MAINLY ACROSS THE WATERS AND OCCASIONALLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH POCKETS OF SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATED PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN, WHILE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW A PLUME OF MODERATE MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA.

BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS, TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED MOISTURE LEVELS WOULD REMAIN MODERATELY ELEVATED. ADDITIONALLY, INCREASING LOW- AND MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARBY MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS MAY DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW WHERE DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS ENHANCE INSTABILITY.

MEANWHILE, SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION AS ABOVE NORMAL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN CHOPPY SEA CONDITIONS. THIS IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND AS SUCH, NO CHANGES ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER

JALEEL JACOBS