01:54 UTC JUNE 13 2026

DISCUSSION: A SURFACE TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINED RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED PATCHES OF SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD ON A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW, WHILE RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR ANTIGUA AND SURROUNDING WATERS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS GENERALLY REPORTED GOOD VISIBILITY, LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL AND EASTERLY WINDS.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL ANALYSIS, DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA, THE RIDGE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGESTS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER, DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ONLY BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS, WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAINING LIGHT AND LOCALIZED. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE.

THIS OUTLOOK IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ISSUED FORECAST AND NO CHANGE IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER

JALEEL JACOBS