02:21 UTC MAY 17 2026

DISCUSSION:   THE NORTHERN END OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVED OVER THE LEEWARDS EARLIER TODAY. THIS RESULTED IN BRIEF MORNING SHOWERS OVER SOME ISLANDS. AFTER ITS PASSAGE, THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGAN TO DIMINISH; HOWEVER, LINGERING INSTABILITY IS STILL PRESENT AS SOME OF THE EVENING SHOWERS DOTTED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY WERE MODERATE IN INTENSITY

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS: A NOTABLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARDS AND THE DIVERGENT SIDE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE BVI DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND OVER THE LEEWARDS BY TOMORROW NIGHT. BUT THE TROUGH IS NOT FORECAST TO BE DEEP AS A RIDGE IN THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS, ALONG WITH LOWER MOISTURE AT THOSE LEVELS IS NOT FORECAST TO CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE, A MODERATE TO FRESH SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL WINDFLOW IS FORECAST TO PUSH SHALLOW CLOUDS OVER THE ISLANDS AT TIMES THEREBY KEEPING MODERATE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARDS. THE BVI WILL ALSO SEE A MODERATE CHANCE OF SHOWERS DUE TO AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE

FORECASTER

LENARD JOSIAH