02:51 UTC SEPTEMBER 16 2026

DISCUSSION:   MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE BEGAN MOVING OVER THE LEEWARD THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE SHOWERS OVER ANTIGUA WERE MODERATE.; HOWEVER, THE SHOWERS WERE NOT BEING SUSTAINED AS THEY WERE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVED WESTWARDS. RADAR IMAGERY REVEALED THAT THESE CONDITIONS WERE NOT AFFECTING THE OTHER ISLANDS AT THE TIME OF THIS REPORT. BASED ON THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS, THE AXIS OF THE WAVE WAS LOCATED ALONG 58 WEST WHICH IS LINE WITH THE LOCATION OF THE MOISTURE BULGE NOTED ON LATEST MIMIC.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS: THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS ON WHAT TO REALLY EXPECT FROM THE WAVE. THE GDI INDEX SHOWS HIGH LEVELS OF INSTABILITY FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS INTO TOMORROW WHICH SIGNALS AN ATMOSPHERE WHICH SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER,THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW RAINFALL ACCUMULATION AVERAGING BETWEEN 10-15 MM WHICH IS SOMEWHAT LOWER WHEN COMPARED TO THE OUTLOOK 2 DAYS AGO. THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD; BUT NOTWITHSTANDING, GIVEN THE INSTABILITY, MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL LIKELY OVER THE LEEWARDS EARLY TOMORROW AND REACHING THE BVI LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS WHICH COULD BE MORE IMPACTFUL TO DRIVERS. THIS OUTLOOK IS IN KEEPING WITH THE LATEST ISSUED FORECAST; HENCE, NO CHANGE IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER

LENARD JOSIAH