04:00 UTC SEPTEMBER 22 2026

DISCUSSION:   WEAK INSTABILITY LINGERED OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY; HOWEVER, THE LACK OF SURFACE SUPPORT LEFT IT ALL TO THE HEATING WHICH PROVIDED THE ONLY TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WEST OF THE ISLANDS BECAUSE OF A STRONGER WIND FLOW IN THE DEEP LAYER. AFTER THE HEATING, SKY CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY FAIR THIS EVENING EVEN THOUGH SMALL SCALE SPOTTY SHOWERS EXISTS ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS; NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. SIMILAR WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE ISLANDS INTO EARLY TOMORROW. HOWEVER, MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL BE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL BE A FACTOR AGAINST MEANINGFUL RAINFALL; BUT BY TOMORROW EVENING, MOISTURE LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THIS ALONG WITH THE TROUGH WILL CREATE A HEIGHTEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARDS MORE-SO FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH IS OUTSIDE THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST. MEANWHILE, THE BVI IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER MOSTLY STABLE CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCE TO THE FORECAST IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER

LENARD JOSIAH