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SIX-MONTHLY
OUTLOOK FOR ANTIGUA JUN TO NOV 2017 |
Dale C. S. Destin
(follow @anumetservice) |
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Antigua and Barbuda
Meteorological Service Climate Section |
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Issued Jun 17, 2017 |
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Based upon model data,
observations and subjective input, the following is the rainfall and
temperature outlook for Antigua for the period June to
November 2017:
Rainfall
Above normal rainfall is likely, with a confidence of 55%. The chace
of drier than normal conditions is slight - 15%
The island-average rainfall
is likely to be greater than 838.2 mm (33.0
in).
Probabilistically, there is a
• 55% chance of above normal rainfall;
• 30% chance of near normal
rainfall (637.5
to 838.2 mm or 25.1 to 33.0 in) and
• 15% chance of below normal rainfall.
Temperature
Warmer than normal temperature is likely, with a confidence of
55%. The chance of
cooler than normal weather is slight - 15%. The mean temperature
is likely to exceed 27.9 °C (82.2 °F). Probabilistically,
there is a
•
55% chance of above normal temperature;
• 30% chance of near normal temperature (27.7
to 27.9 °C or 81.9 to 82.2 °F) and •
15% chance of below normal temperature.
This outlook is largely
predicated on sea surface temperature (SST) patterns across the tropical
Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
More outlooks:
Jun,
Jun to Aug,
Sep to Nov,
Drought
The next
will be issued by July 7.
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Definition
The following definitions
are being observed based on the 1981 to 2010 dataset:
• Well below normal: Values in the lowest 10% of the dataset
• Below normal (lower/less than normal): Values in the lowest 33.3% of the dataset
• Near normal (normal or usual): Values in the middle 33.3% of the dataset
• Above normal (more/higher than normal): Values in the highest 33.3% of the dataset
• Well above normal: Values in the highest 10% of the dataset
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Background
CliSec's
six month outlooks are general statements about the probability or
risk of above, near or below normal (rainfall) over a six-month
period. The outlooks are based on the statistics of chance (the
odds) taken from Antigua's rainfall and mainly sea surface temperature
records for the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. They are not,
however, categorical predictions about future rainfall, and they are
not about rainfall within individual months of the six-month outlook
period.
Probability outlooks should not be used as if they were categorical
forecasts. These outlooks should be used as a tool in risk management and decision making. The benefits accrue from long-term
use, say over 10 years. At any given time, the probabilities may seem inaccurate,
but taken over several years, the advantages of taking account of
the risks should outweigh the disadvantages. For more information on the use of probabilities, farmers could contact their local departments of agriculture.
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Disclaimer
The information
contained herein is provided with the understanding that the Antigua and
Barbuda Meteorological Service makes no warranties, either expressed or
implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or
suitability of this outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be
modified in content and then presented as original material.
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