TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING STATEMENT

WHCA31 TAPA
HURRICANE TAMMY WARNING STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
2:34 PM ECT FRI, OCT 20, 2023

...CENTER OF TAMMY EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS

TONIGHT...

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER

ANTILLES...

THIS IS FOR ANGUILLA

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ANGUILLA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS SHOULD RUSH ALL DISASTER PREPARATIONS TO COMPLETION AND SEEK SAFE SHELTER.

AT 2:00 PM AST OR 1800 UTC, THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 58.9 WEST OR ABOUT 396 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ANGUILLA.

TAMMY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD TURN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF TAMMY WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY, AND THEN MOVE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND TAMMY IS EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE WHILE IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM).

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA IS 991 MB (29.26 INCHES).

BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATION AND ANALYSIS, TAMMY REMAINS ON A PATH TOWARDS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS BETWEEN 50 TO 70 MPH. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF TAMMY; THEREFORE RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND AND RESIDENTS NEAR SLOPES SHOULD GUARD AGAINST MUDSLIDES.

MARINERS SHOULD COMPLETE SAFE ANCHORAGE. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AND WILL PEAK NEAR 18 FEET OR HIGHER DURING THE PASSAGE OF HURRICANE TAMMY. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO SEEK SAFE ANCHORAGE AND REMAIN IN PORT.

ALL RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF TAMMY CLOSELY AND ACT TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 PM OR SOONER IF REQUIRED.

FORECASTER
LETITIA HUMPHREYS