00:31 UTC FEBRUARY 05 2012

DISCUSSION  ..A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE REPORTED OVER AND AROUND THE LEEWARDS AND BVI TODAY DUE TO A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WAS ANALYZED ON THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS JUST EAST OF THE BVI. ASSOCIATED SHALLOW CLOUDS REVEALED BY THE SATELLITE WERE DRIFTING WESTWARDS AND ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THAT MOTION. A DRY ATMOSPHERE JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARDS REVEALED BY MIMIC IS ALSO MOVING WESTWARDS.

FOR THE NEXT 24HRS, THE NAM, GFS AND UKMET AGREE ON THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SEPARATING WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION MOVING WESTWARDS IN A GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW; THIS FEATURE  WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING  ALLOWING FOR THE DRIER ATMOSPHERE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. IN FACT, BOTH THE GFS AND UKMET SUGGEST SOME LOW MIXING RATIO VALUES ENTERING THE LEEWARDS EARLY TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE EXPECTED LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER THESE ISLANDS. FOR THE BVI, AFTER SOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT SHOWERS, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW.

FORECASTER