01:17 UTC MARCH 10 2010

DISCUSSION  ..VARIABLE CLOUDY SKIES WERE NOTED OVER THE LEEWARDS AND BVI TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THESE ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE REMAINS A RELATIVELY LOW LEVEL FEATURE AND THE LACK OF DEPTH MEANS THERE ISN'T TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT. NONETHELESS, MIMIC PRODUCT IS STILL INDICATING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT-A BIT MORE THAN THAT REVEALED ON THE MORNING SOUNDING. OVER THE PAST TWENTY FOUR HOURS THIS FEATURE HAS WEAKENED A BIT WITH HEIGHT VALUES INCREASING MODESTLY. IN ANY EVENT, EVENING SATELLITE PHOTO IS STILL REVEALING CONSIDERABLE LAYERED TYPE CLOUDS. EXTENDING INTO THE FUTURE, BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MODELS HAVE AN INTERESTING SCENARIO THAT SEEMINGLY INCREASES RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE LEEWARDS TOMORROW MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID TO UPPER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES BY. BUT BASED ON THE PRESENCE OF A RIDGE AT 850MB IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT BOTH MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER, WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STILL PRESENT, ANY SURFACE TO LOW-LEVEL FEATURE COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AT ANYTIME. VARIABLE CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LEEWARDS AND BVI WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT NOT AS MUCH AS REVEALED BY THE MODELS.

FORECASTER