AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
ISSUED BY ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

16:05 UTC JANUARY 16 2017

 

DISCUSSION: THIS MORNING, CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERS PREVAILED ACROSS MOST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SATELLITE AND MIMIC-TPW SHOWED CLOUDY PATCHES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE. UP TO 10 MM OR 0.04 IN FELL ACROSS AREA, OVER THE SEA, BASED MAINLY ON RADAR ESTIMATES. LOW LEVEL MIXING AND CONVERGENCE WERE THE MAIN CAUSE OF THE SHOWERS. MEANWHILE, THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS WERE DRY WITH JUST FEW LOW-LEVEL CLOUDY. SEAS REMAINED HAZARDOUS WITH HEIGHTS OF 2.4 METRES OR 8 FEET PRIMARILY FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS HAVE SHOWN THAT A REDUCTION OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND A SUBSIDENT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE, WITH A RIDGE IN THE VICINITY LIKELY CAUSING LOW LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACCORDING TO, THE GFS MODEL. MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS, SHOWERS ARE ALSO LIKELY ACROSS THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. POSSIBLE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS 0 TO 3 MM OR 0 TO 0.12 INCH. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ROUGH WITH HEIGHT OF 2.4 METRES OR 8 FEET FOR MAINLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA, ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE LATEST OBSERVATION, MODEL RUNS AND ANALYSES GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FORECASTS.

 

FORECASTER

DALE DESTIN