AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
ISSUED BY ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

15:50 UTC MARCH 23 2017

 

DISCUSSION: CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS WERE EXPERIENCED ACROSS ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA, BASED ON OBSERVED RECORDINGS AND RADAR ESTIMATES RAINFALL TOTALS WERE 1 TO 3 MM. THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WERE INFLUENCED BY THE PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IN THE AREA AND HIGHER THAN AVERAGE MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, THE FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCED PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NO REPORTED OR OBSERVED SHOWER ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE, THE SEA CONDITIONS REMAINED MODERATE WITH HEIGHTS OF 1.5 TO 2.1 METERS OR 5 TO 7 FEET.

THE LATEST MODEL PROJECTIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS HAVE MAINTAINED THAT THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, CLOUDY SPELLS AND MODERATE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING; THUS, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LIKELY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY. POSSIBLE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1 TO 3MM OR 0.04 TO 0.12INCH. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE WITH HEIGHTS OF 1.2 TO 2.1 METERS OR 4 TO 7 FEET. THEREFORE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AND SEA BATHERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. RADAR IMAGERY, CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST MODEL PROJECTIONS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ISSUED FORECAST. 

 

FORECASTER

PATRICE EDWARDS