AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
ISSUED BY ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

01:05 UTC JULY 15 2018

 

DISCUSSION  ..CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE OCCASIONAL BRIEF SHOWERS PRETTY MUCH DOMINATED THE DAY ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL CHART ANALYSES ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO PLACE A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE AREA WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ON THE OTHER HAND, A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALONG WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOMINATED THE DAY ACROSS THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. SOME SAHARAN DUST INTRUDING THE REGION ALSO CAUSED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS TO BE QUITE HAZY.

ALL THE MODELS ARE PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT IN PROJECTING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINING IN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND SPREADING TO THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS TOMORROW ALTHOUGH THE WAVE AXIS WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION BY TOMORROW. THEREFORE, FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN HIGH OR AT AROUND 70 PERCENT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND FOR THE ENTIRE DAY TOMORROW FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE SAHARAN DUST WILL ALSO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION BUT THE DENSITY WILL BE LESS AND HENCE THE HAZE IS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY SLIGHT FOR TOMORROW.

 

FORECASTER

LORNE SALMON