AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
ISSUED BY ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

13:44 UTC NOVEMBER 12 2018

 

DISCUSSION  ..THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION WHERE CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE ISLANDS. BASED ON THE LATEST ANALYSES, THE GREATER AREA OF ENHANCEMENT OR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ORIENTED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHERE THE HEAVIER AND MORE FREQUENT PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE OCCURING AT THIS TIME. IN FACT SOME OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS WOULD HAVE RECORDED IN EXCESS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT IN HOLDING THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 AND HENCE, THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH SOME MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE. IN FACT AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EAST OF THE ISLANDS IS ANTICIPATED TO FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE LEVELS BY TOMORROW; THEREFORE, THE CHANCE OF HAVING FREQUENT PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AND ALSO THE CHANCE OF FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND FLOOD-PRONE AREAS. POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE AREA WILL RANGE FROM 12 MM TO 51MM OR 0.5 TO 2 INCHES. SOME STRONG CELLS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ISLANDS TOMORROW COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS FROM THE DOWNDRAFTS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CELLS. WIND GUSTS IN SHOWERS REACHING NEAR 50 KM/H OR 27 KNOTS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.

 

FORECASTER

LORNE SALMON