AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
ISSUED BY ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

13:13 UTC SEPTEMBER 23 2018

 

DISCUSSION  ..AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REFLECTED AS A TROUGH AT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME VENTILATION FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND HENCE, SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING, THE ISLANDS HAVE HAD SOME PASSING SHOWERS UNDER CLOUDY PERIODS. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER, THE SUPPORTING MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ABSENT AT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE CURRENT STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE PRETTY MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT PASSING SHOWER. HOWEVER, THE MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT OF PROJECTING AN INCREASE IN THE THE INTENSITY AND AMOUNT OF SHOWERS STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT MODAY. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO A SHIFT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FURTHER WEST WHICH WILL BETTER PLACE THE ISLANDS UNDER BOTH A DIFFLUENCE AND SPEED DIVERGENCE PATTERN. THE INFLUX OF SOME MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND MOVING AHEAD OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER ELEVEN WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT TOMORROW. POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTAL FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IS 5MM TO 15MM.

 

FORECASTER

LORNE SALMON